The capture of Gbagbo: a warning to Khadafy?

Caught by the "UN"

Yesterday, regime-change "French style" showed its subtle touch in the Ivory Coast, when UN (or rather French)  troops supported president elect Quattara's forces, in capturing the current President Gbagbo in his underground bunker.

It is clear that increased French confidence in the military sphere has been bouyed by a number of factors.

Nicolas Sarkozy's comments, on coming to power, about forging a new relationship with the US. France's political dominance in the EU Commission, and on the subject of Europe-wide defence. Weakened British miltary prowess, forcing us for example, into a treaty with France on things like aircraft carriers. Not to mention a clear Sarkozy lead on regime change in Libya (to ensure continued oil distribution to France).

All of these have self-evidently emboldened the French into using their forces to support their national interests, in the Ivory Coast. However, the more subtle message is celarly to Khadafy and his family, and you've got to be blind not to see it.

If the defections from within the regime don't work to engineer its collapse, and you insist on holding out, because you know the West of the country is actually behind you; don't let that fool you. It doesn't matter.


Chance for peace

You see there's the small matter of these oil contracts for French companies like Respol et al... So don't labour under the impression that we'll allow Libya to be partioned along those old Ottoman divides: with Cyrenaica in the East and Tripolitania in the West. No matter how long you hold out.

Even though if we did so, it would bring the bloodshed to an end almost immediately. Sorry, it's not on the table.

The message is implicit - Gbabgo held out for six months of diplomatic wrangling and military pressure - but in the end France's economic interests mattered more: even if it meant Fench troops "aiding" the storming of a bunker.

So wise up Khadafy, you may believe, that even as a tyrant, you have the right to run Libya, but you are about to see what the rest of Europe knows: that the French don't  allow matters of sovereignty to get in the their way, when it comes to their vested interests. And get that change of shirt ready, only make sure its Yves Saint Laurent, so at least the French press will think you have style!